Arne Slot's Superpower
Arne Slot is close to winning the Premier League at the first attempt with Liverpool. A key aspect of his career explains why the Reds won't falter.
The Premier League run-in starts here. Liverpool need 16 points from their final nine matches to confirm themselves as champions of England for a 20th time.
There is a remarkable parallel of sorts with last season. On the final day of March 2024, the Reds were top of the table with 29 games played. Hopes unfortunately started unraveling a week later, with a weary Liverpool closing out Jürgen Klopp’s last campaign in charge by taking 15 points from their final nine league games.
In all likelihood they would still become champions with a repeat this term. It will definitely be enough if they avoid defeat to Arsenal at Anfield in May. There is zero reason for any supporter to think they are not going to get over the line. With the total Mikel Arteta’s men are predicted to get, just six more points will be enough.
There will still be fans who are worrying, because that is often what fans do best. Never mind that the Gunners haven’t won nine consecutive league games in a single season for over two decades, their time is now, right?
Even if Arsenal somehow break with 20 years of tradition, Liverpool aren’t going to fall away. This point was hammered home with a startling piece of trivia which was included in a stunning profile of Arne Slot by Thore Haugstad. Go away, read it, then come back. You won’t be disappointed.
When your life revolves around statistics, trends, facts and figures in football, it’s rare to be taken aback. Here’s how Thore floored me:
Slot has never lost two straight league games on a senior level.
Twelve words among over forty-four hundred was all it took. Every team below second in the 2024/25 Premier League has lost two straight games this season. Four of the big six clubs have had at least two such runs this term, yet Slot has yet to suffer one with any team. It is his superpower.
Long-time followers may recall a simple chart I made for my own amusement back in the early days of the Klopp era. A basic colour coding system a child would devise illustrated that he had not lost consecutive league matches with Liverpool. That run ended eventually, as such runs always do, but it took until match 205, which is more league games than Slot has accumulated in his career.
Haugstad published his Slot article on the morning of the Carabao Cup final. The Reds promptly lost for the second time in six days, albeit not in the league, of course.
Even worse news was to come. A check of Slot’s career history on Transfermarkt revealed that he has, in fact, lost consecutive league games before. However, it only happened once - he was thinking of you the whole time, he swears - and it was either side of the Eredivisie’s winter break.
Thankfully this unfortunate incident occurred over five years ago. Below is a table of the instances in which Slot has suffered defeats in two straight games in all competitions.
Even this limited sample includes the second half of a Conference League tie which followed a 5-0 first leg win, the Dutch Super Cup and two Eredivisie final days with nothing on the line. Bad weeks when both games truly mattered to Slot have been very rare.
While he did once lose two straight league games, per Capology Alkmaar were only ninth in the Eredivisie salary standings for that season. The same source has Slot’s Feyenoord side as the third best paid club in each of his three campaigns in Rotterdam, with Liverpool fifth in the Premier League this term. He has never been expected to dominate a division.
All wage data in football has to be taken with an unhealthy dose of salt. The salary standing of Manchester City in the next table suggests as much. It shows the teams in England and Netherlands that have not lost more than one league game in a row in the five full campaigns Slot has had in management, sorted by their wage rank within their league.
Only two clubs appear four times: Feyenoord and Liverpool, which makes Slot the only manager with a quartet of entries. Disregarding teams who were in the top two highest paid in their respective leagues leaves 11 that weren't masterminded by the soon-to-be-Premier-League-winning Dutchman.
As lucky as he will have been at points, the statistics suggest that won’t have been the case too often. Per FBRef, the Reds’ expected goal defeats number just three in the league this season, never by more than 0.4 xG. The same source only carries shot numbers for the Eredivisie. They show that only twice were Slot’s Feyenoord outshot in consecutive matches, just one for efforts on target.
Liverpool could lose five games over the remainder of 2024/25 while keeping this record intact. But let’s be realistic, that isn’t going to happen. Arne Slot is likely to complete a fourth consecutive league campaign without losing two straight games. It’s a super power which will keep the Reds at the right end of the league table throughout his time in charge.
Okay, 'superpower' is going too far. But I had the idea for the gif and ran with it!