Basic Stats Suggest Liverpool Have The Best Attack In The Premier League's Data Era

Liverpool might not be as exciting to watch under Arne Slot as they were when Jürgen Klopp was in charge but they are more efficient.

“XG is a load of nonsense”

SOME GUY - IT’S ALWAYS A GUY - REPLYING TO ME ON SOCIAL MEDIA RECENTLY

Football data is now incredibly detailed, even when only having access to that which is available online for free. With expected threat building on the xG models which went before, everything in the game has a value.

As the old saying goes, not everything that can be counted counts and not everything that counts can be counted, though. If not ‘a load of nonsense’ as some would suggest, expected goals is not sacrosanct. Do you think Arsenal fans were bothered that their five goals against Manchester City came from their total chances valued by Opta at just 1.0 xG? The quote at the top of the page should give you a hint.

We saw with Liverpool’s recent 2-0 win at Bournemouth that their two highest value non-penalty chances were offside and arguably more of a pass than a shot respectively. As useful as expected goal models are, we can still learn a lot about a team’s attacking process through basic statistics which would have been available over 20 years ago.

Another recent 2-0 victory for the Reds proves the point. Liverpool had 37 shots at Brentford last month, the most by an away team in the Premier League since records began in 2003. It matches the total posted in a Merseyside derby win at Anfield almost nine years ago. However, there’s a noticeable difference between the shot maps for the two games.

Everton finished 2015/16 in 11th, the position Brentford currently occupy. While these opponents were therefore of broadly similar standard, the Blues played almost half of the match deservedly a man down on enemy territory. Despite these advantages, the Liverpool of Jürgen Klopp’s first part season took 19 shots from outside the penalty area, compared to just nine for Arne Slot’s present day vintage.

To anyone with a passing interest in football data, this isn’t a surprise. As thinking has evolved regarding shooting choices, so the proportion of shots that are taken from within the 18-yard box has grown in almost linear fashion year-on-year.

Liverpool have broadly followed that trend, taking it to a new level this term. Slot has built upon Klopp’s work, with a combination of box shots and another basic metric suggesting the Reds of 2024/25 might just be the most potent attacking force the Premier League has seen in the data era. If that is the case, then they are probably the best ever.