How Many Shots Should Liverpool Have Conceded?

On shot numbers alone, Liverpool don't have the defence of Premier League champions. A closer look highlights a distinct positive in their numbers

Liverpool made such a remarkably good start to the season defensively that it was unlikely to be sustained throughout the campaign. After seven games, the Reds had conceded just two goals.

Only four times in Premier League history had a team conceded fewer at that stage of a season. Yet the recent 5-0 win at West Ham was Liverpool’s first clean sheet in five league matches, with their last on the road occurring in the first week of October.

Their total of 17 goals conceded in the first 18 games is only two fewer than the struggling Reds of 2022/23 allowed two years ago. It has left supporters wondering if their team is defensively sound enough to win the title.

Liverpool have let in two-or-more goals in five league matches since the final weekend of October, as many as Arsenal (two) and Chelsea (three) combined. The explanation for the downturn in their defensive form appears obvious.

For most of the opening seven games of the season, Arne Slot was able to field Ibrahima Konaté and Virgil van Dijk in front of Alisson Becker. The Brazilian missed the 3-0 win over Bournemouth, but it was in the seventh match, at Crystal Palace, that he suffered a far more serious injury. Though Alisson has since returned, Konáte has been absent since before he did so.

While hugely relevant, other factors will have played a part. As he so often does, Neil Atkinson made an excellent point during The Anfield Wrap’s Review show for the Reds’ 6-3 win at Tottenham. He noted that Liverpool had not played the sides sat 14th, 15th and 17th in the league table, with only one of the bottom 10 having visited Anfield. Atkinson suggested the shots conceded average would decrease once the Reds had played those games.

Sure enough, Leicester then had just four efforts at Liverpool on Boxing Day, before West Ham mustered seven against them last time out. Point proved. It got me thinking, nonetheless. As one can use expected goals to predict the score line of a match, it is possible to do the same for shots. The Reds have allowed 9.7 per game this season but how many should they have conceded?