Liverpool have a safer Danger Zone than Manchester City

CIES posted shots allowed stats for the danger zone of the penalty box. Liverpool and Manchester City are neck and neck until further vital context is added.

Data can be sliced up in all manner of ways. If you want a list of players who’ve scored a Premier League hattrick on a Tuesday, you can get it. What use it is to you is another matter.

A better away to assess many football statistics is to factor in where on the pitch the action takes place. While a data analyst might love Mario Balotelli’s shot volume, the fact many of his efforts were hit from a different postcode to the goal undermines the findings.

The most important section of the pitch is known as the danger zone, the central section of the penalty area which stretches from the six yard box out to the 18-yard line. CIES Football Observatory recently shared the data for shots taken and allowed in this prime football real estate. At the back end of the pitch, Liverpool are the best team in England this season, as shown by this table which is sorted by danger zone shots conceded per match in 2024/25.

The gap from the Reds to Manchester City is negligible. It’s interesting that the Premier League top two are outside the leading 10 for Europe’s big five leagues, with Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest joint-24th. Is it harder to defend in the Premier League? Is it more competitive, with fewer terrible sides? It’s richer, which always helps when building an attack.

With this being a niche statistic that is not widely shared, it is impossible to compare across seasons. It is worth applying further context to the available data, though. We might have narrowed shots down to the most valuable part of the pitch, but the above data does not account for the quality of the chances within the danger zone. From Liverpool’s perspective, a deeper dig is hugely rewarding.