If memory serves, Nuñez and Salah had a great understanding prior to the latter getting injured at AFCON. So if we're not selling Darwin this window, I think this performance merits a couple starts in the next few matches. Just when I'd all but given up on him he comes up with the goods. We all know there is a world class 9 in there somewhere.
Nunez is a player that burns brightest in moments. He rarely sustains it when he had a run of starting in the team. In that way, he may be our new Origi. And I'm fine with that.
Glad you also caught on to this. IMO cumulative xG discounts very important real-world factors: time, ability and belief.
I give that average attacker 10 shots each worth 0.1 xG against VVD and Allison. After 9 failed attempts, any human player would stop believing he could score, even though probability should give him certainty.
Sure, if we could replay United or Forest ad infinitum, we win most times and that is all cumulative xG tells you.
As you also pointed out, a more-telling value of goal scoring ability on the day is the average xG per shot. I would also combine it with the mean absolution deviation (MAD) of xG. Versus Brentford that would result in an average xG of 0,09 with a MAD of 0,07 with 37 attempts which is our second worst of the season alongside Forrest away. 26 of 37 shots were worth less than 0,1 xG. Brentford had an avg xG of 0,07 and a MAD of 0,06 with 11 attempts. So both sides were poor at creating high value chances, we just had many more of them. Nunez chances were the first and third best xG of our attempts, Diaz had a very good one in minute 15 which he fumbled. As you stated, worst performance on this metric was Forrest at home, 14 shots worth an average xG of 0,07 with a MAD of 0,04.
If memory serves, Nuñez and Salah had a great understanding prior to the latter getting injured at AFCON. So if we're not selling Darwin this window, I think this performance merits a couple starts in the next few matches. Just when I'd all but given up on him he comes up with the goods. We all know there is a world class 9 in there somewhere.
Yes they did. A really strong combination for big chances. Salah said recently that he loves playing with Darwin too.
Nunez is a player that burns brightest in moments. He rarely sustains it when he had a run of starting in the team. In that way, he may be our new Origi. And I'm fine with that.
Glad you also caught on to this. IMO cumulative xG discounts very important real-world factors: time, ability and belief.
I give that average attacker 10 shots each worth 0.1 xG against VVD and Allison. After 9 failed attempts, any human player would stop believing he could score, even though probability should give him certainty.
Sure, if we could replay United or Forest ad infinitum, we win most times and that is all cumulative xG tells you.
As you also pointed out, a more-telling value of goal scoring ability on the day is the average xG per shot. I would also combine it with the mean absolution deviation (MAD) of xG. Versus Brentford that would result in an average xG of 0,09 with a MAD of 0,07 with 37 attempts which is our second worst of the season alongside Forrest away. 26 of 37 shots were worth less than 0,1 xG. Brentford had an avg xG of 0,07 and a MAD of 0,06 with 11 attempts. So both sides were poor at creating high value chances, we just had many more of them. Nunez chances were the first and third best xG of our attempts, Diaz had a very good one in minute 15 which he fumbled. As you stated, worst performance on this metric was Forrest at home, 14 shots worth an average xG of 0,07 with a MAD of 0,04.
This paper discusses some of the cumulative xG flaws in relation to finishing: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2401.09940#:~:text=We%20found%20that%20sustained%20overperformance,for%20excellent%20finishers%20than%20it
Thanks, I’ll read that.