Stat of the Match: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Liverpool

Did Liverpool gain a point or drop two at Nottingham Forest? Your view of the Premier League title race may shape the answer.

The City Ground hosted the biggest clash of Nottingham Forest and Liverpool for over 40 years on Tuesday night. Both teams may not yet know how to feel about the result.

Based on his side’s performance in the first hour, Arne Slot should be reasonably satisfied that the Reds recovered to earn a point. “I couldn’t have asked for more today,” he said after the game. “I think most people talk about the second half - that they are really positive about the second half. If you ask me, I am also more positive about the second half than the first half.”

With good reason, Arne. Liverpool were not completely blunt in the opening 45 minutes, just wide of the mark. According to the club’s official The Reaction podcast, their nine shots was their most in the first half of a Premier League match without putting one on target for 11 years. It’s safe to assume that occurred in 2014/15, rather than at the end of the season before.

Even though Forest scored in just the eighth minute, Liverpool had already taken four shots. The problem was that they did so in a fashion that suited the home side, with pops at goal taken from areas with little-to-no chance of hitting the net (aside from a reasonable chance for Ryan Gravenberch).

An early dearth of ideas in the final third led to a quartet of efforts collectively valued at 0.11 expected goals. Chris Wood’s chance more than doubled that (0.25) when he opened the scoring. The game was already being played on Forest’s terms, with the Kiwi’s strike then ratcheting that up a notch.

By full time, the visitors had completed more passes in the final third than their hosts did across the whole pitch. For some teams this would’ve been hell; the home side lapped it up, with Murillo setting the season record for clearances in a Premier League game.

While they condensed their best work into the final half hour of the match, the Reds attacked far better here than they had against Forest at Anfield. In that game, five of Liverpool’s six shots in the central ‘danger zone’ of the penalty box had been headers. Granted, their equaliser was nodded into the net, but Diogo Jota had a further two Opta-defined big chances with his left foot in excellent locations. It is rare for so brief a cameo to feature so many high value efforts.

Stat of the Match: Liverpool 0-1 Nottingham Forest

Unfortunately he ran into Matz Sels, the Belgian who is leading the race for the Golden Glove award this season. He has saved 2.2 goals more than expected in 2024/25, per FBRef, with 0.9 occurring in this match. Adding in the reverse fixture shows that Sels has been +1.5 against the Reds, +0.7 versus the rest of the division combined.

Nonetheless, Slot had clearly learned from his previous encounter with the Tricky Trees. He made a subtly different tactical change by the banks of the Trent than he had at Anfield, which helped immeasurably.