The Gareth Southgate Heist

It costs a lot to look this cheap

The Gareth Southgate era has drawn to a close for England. Much will be written about the quality of job that he did. When compared to his predecessors, the 53-year-old delivered several rarely matched highs. When viewed in light of the talent at his disposal, it’s reasonable to ask if he didn’t commit a crime of some kind.

Assessing the performance of an international manager is not an easy task. Southgate oversaw 102 matches in eight years, where a reasonably successful manager at a top Premier League club will tick off that many games in under two seasons.

Scrub off the friendlies and Southgate’s England tenure is reduced to 79 games. And even then, how many of those matches were truly competitive? Eighteen of them were in the Nations League, a competition of glorified friendlies created to eradicate the truly pointless ones. In qualifying matches for major tournaments, Gareth’s Three Lions faced the likes of Andorra, Lithuania, Malta and San Marino; competitive games in name, not nature, as the aggregate scoreline of 39-0 from the 10 fixtures against those nations proves.

If you manage one of the big international sides, very few qualifiers matter and tournament group stages should be safely negotiated too. Assuming you meet those minimum requirements, your work is judged on one to four knockout matches every two years. The whim of a referee or the bounce of a ball can determine how you are viewed and remembered.

All any manager can do is get their side to deliver the best performance they can. Beyond that, fate will inevitably take a hand. As Josh Williams and I discussed on the latest episode of his podcast, England’s efforts at Euro 2024 were unforgiveable.

Southgate’s side played seven matches in Germany, with underlying performances which suggested they deserved to win twice and lose three times. Without the penalty against Netherlands, which many would argue was very fortunately awarded, that match becomes a draw on expected goals too.

More damning still, England’s xG difference for the tournament was -1.3. On a per 90 minutes played basis (as they endured two periods of extra time), -0.17 puts the beaten finalists below 14 of the other 23 nations, include group stage failures Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Serbia and Ukraine. Based on average FIFA ranking of opponents faced, only six teams had easier games than England too. Here’s another piece of telling trivia:

Georgia finished bottom of the xG difference per 90 chart, but even so, they were the tournament outsiders and went to Germany with a squad carrying a lower market value than Jude Bellingham alone. By the measure of leading and trailing, they were more dominant than England though.

The worth of Southgate’s squad is hinted at by the below graphic which shows the most valuable 4-2-3-1 formation at Euro 2024 in the opinion of Transfermarkt. The numerical system for those tactics almost covers the spread of representative countries perfectly: 4(England)-2(France)-3(Portugal)-1(Croatia or Spain).

The identity of the right-back won’t have escaped your attention. It’s a player Southgate could afford to use in midfield for a game-and-a-half then swiftly disregard. Trent Alexander-Arnold would be first choice right-back for almost any other nation.

The figures quoted above are an estimate of a player’s value which Transfermarkt derives by using the wisdom of crowds. The figures are not perfect, but they’re also as unbiased as you’re likely to find online in this day and age.

Here’s how the top sides at Euro 2024 compare with the leading club teams for squad market value (in million Euros).

Even if you think Southgate did a good job overall, this is truly damning of his recent work. Using the most valuable squad in all of football, England delivered an underlying pro rata performance identical to that recorded by Eintracht Frankfurt and Real Betis in 2023/24, a little below what Nottingham Forest served up. An international tournament might be a small sample but it can still tell us plenty.

Football being what it is, perhaps Mikel Oyarzabal might have missed the late chance from which he settled the Euro 2024 final, allowing England to go up the other end, score, and win 2-1. It would’ve been ‘arise, Sir Gareth’, when for an annual salary believed to be around £5m, it clearly should be ‘off with his head’.