Why 91 Points WILL win the Premier League

Liverpool supporters are looking at the Reds sat top of the Premier League with an eight-point lead. Here's why another 60 points will seal the title

Liverpool are favourites to win the 2024/25 Premier League title. The bookmakers think so, the Opta supercomputer (algorithm) agrees and the history of teams with 31 points after 12 games is near unanimous behind them for a hattrick of positivity.

The percentages will shift with every game. Rarely will that be more apparent than this weekend when the Reds face Manchester City at Anfield. It’s worth rewinding five years for a very similar example to prove the point.

After 11 games of 2019/20, Liverpool held a six-point advantage over City. FiveThirtyEight gave them a 52 and 44 per cent chance of winning the league respectively. Jürgen Klopp’s boys then beat the defending champions, Pep Guardiola bellowed ‘twice’ into the Liverpool sky and those title likelihood estimates shifted to 67 and 29. The points gap was never again any closer than it was at full time that day.

The Reds are already hold a 76.7 per cent likelihood with Opta this season. They will still be in a fantastic position even if a badly stumbling City somehow manage to win at Anfield with fans present for the first time in over two decades.

Regardless of the outcome on Sunday, fans are starting to wonder how many points will be needed to secure the Premier League title this season. We have all seen the Cityzens have the occasional autumnal stumble, only to roar back in the new year with a near-perfect second half of the campaign.

Even though they are below par at present, City have earned an average of 91.1 points over the last seven seasons. It would be foolish to dismiss their chances too soon. Equally, there is a reason within that impressive history which shows (as much as anything can) why they won’t reach 91 this time and why if Liverpool do, they will become champions of England for a 20th time.